China plans twice as much wind, solar power as rest of the world – Interesting Engineering

The researchers focused on solar farms with a capacity of 20 megawatts (MW) or more, which directly feed into the power grid. This methodology means the actual volume of solar power in China could be significantly higher, considering that small-scale solar farms contribute around 40% of the country’s solar capacity. 

This highlights China’s leading role in global renewable energy production. Meanwhile, the U.S. is growing more worried about China’s excess capacity and market dumping, especially in the solar industry.

China has witnessed a remarkable surge in renewable energy development in recent years, driven by the government’s support. President Xi Jinping has stressed the need for “new quality productive forces,” meaning a move towards more technology and innovation in the economy. His plan includes making green manufacturing a key part of these new productive forces.

The driving force behind China’s renewable boom

The scale of China’s renewable energy expansion is remarkable. Between March 2023 and March 2024, China installed more solar power than it had in the previous three years combined and more than the rest of the world combined for 2023. 

GEM analysts have projected that China is on track to reach 1,200GW of installed wind and solar capacity by the end of 2024, which is six years ahead of the government’s target.

“The unabated wave of construction guarantees that China will continue leading in wind and solar installation in the near future, far ahead of the rest of the world,” the report stated. 

However, achieving these impressive numbers is only part of the challenge. 

Analysts warn that even more renewable capacity will be required for China to meet its ambitious target of reducing the carbon intensity of its economy by 18%. Carbon intensity measures the amount of CO2 emissions produced per kilowatt hour of electricity generated.

Earlier studies suggest that China will need to install between 1,600GW and 1,800GW of wind and solar energy by 2030 to achieve its goal of sourcing 25% of all energy from non-fossil sources. From 2020 to 2023, only 30% of the growth in energy consumption was met by renewable sources, falling short of the 50% target.

As quoted by The Guardian, Li Shuo, the director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Policy Institute in Washington, DC, highlighted the complexity of this transition, “It is obviously important for China to keep on adding more renewable energy to meet its targets. But it’s not as simple as you just keep building and it will be solved … [because] there is no sign that the country is trying to steer away from its coal consumption.”

Balancing renewables with energy security

Despite the rapid growth in renewables, China faces significant challenges. A previous analysis by GEM and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air revealed that approvals for new coal power plants increased fourfold from 2022 to 2023 compared to the previous five-year period from 2016 to 2020. 

This surge in coal power plant approvals occurred despite a 2021 pledge to “strictly control” new coal power projects. Additionally, total coal consumption growth increased from an average of 0.5% per year to 3.8% per year between these periods.

Geopolitical tensions, such as the war in Ukraine, have heightened concerns about energy security worldwide. Major power cuts in parts of China in recent years have also fueled these concerns, leading officials to view coal as a reliable energy source to address the intermittency of renewable energy.

Although clean energy sectors have become the primary driver of China’s economic growth, accounting for 40% of GDP expansion in 2023, coal remains a crucial component of the country’s energy strategy.

To efficiently utilize the increasing volume of clean energy generated by China’s wind and solar farms, analysts stress the need for better storage solutions and grid flexibility. Recognizing this challenge, the Chinese government has identified lithium-ion batteries as one of the “new three” technologies essential for high-quality growth, alongside electric vehicles and solar panels.

In 2023, China invested $11 billion in grid-connected batteries, a 364% increase over 2022.

The GEM report also highlighted China’s efficiency in building planned renewable energy infrastructure. The 339GW of wind and solar projects that have reached the construction stage represent one-third of the proposed projects, vastly surpassing the global construction rate of 7%.

“China’s renewable energy pipeline is two times larger than the rest of the world,” Li Shuo pointed out. “But the question we should increasingly ask ourselves is, how come the rest of the world is so slow?”